Facts are at the heart of the climate debate – it's time we used them.
For many across the UK, the past few weeks have seen us reaching for our shorts and suncream to make the most of multiple heatwaves baking our streets. It is against this backdrop that the Royal Meteorological Society published their State of the UK Climate 2024 report.
The Met Office-led team delivered the hard data to support the experience farmers, foresters and others exposed to the elements have been enduring for the few past years – the UK is warming up, rainfall is increasing, and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent.
The report presented a number of findings that really bring our national obsession with the weather to life; it confirmed the rapid warming trend, highlighting that the UK has warmed by approximately 0.25 °C per decade since the 1980s. Meanwhile, the last few years have ranked among the top five warmest in UK recorded history. In 2024 alone, February (second warmest), May (warmest), and spring (hottest) all broke records. The report also identifies the longer seasons, fewer frosts and wetter winters that are impacting our harvests and wider climate.
Now many will have ruled out Ed Miliband’s stark warnings earlier this week as another sign of his “environmental zealotry”, but as anyone who undertakes regular UK travel knows, the number of disruptive weather events are increasing, bringing significant impacts to our local businesses, economy and daily lives.
And yet, the past 18 months have marked a break from consensus on climate-related issues to it becoming a core point of political differentiation. Fine, I guess. Who likes consensus anyway? There are votes to be won, and while no political party has a real answer about how to reduce our electricity bills in the long-term, we might as well blame the eco zealots. And yet, beneath all the noise, the data contained in the RMS report is undeniable – the UK is getting warmer and wetter. Not only is this disruptive, but it is also costly. The British insurance industry paid out a record £585m in weather-related claims in 2023/24 – almost £200m higher than in 2004.
The environmental data is pretty clear on climate change and support the behaviour of investors who integrated climate-related risks (and opportunities) into their frameworks years ago. Companies with leading sustainability credentials yield higher financial returns, scoring up to 50% higher than laggards in the sector. Furthermore, as a 2024 PWC survey attests, shoppers are willing to pay close to 10% premium for more sustainably sourced goods.
All data can and should be challenged and critically assessed. However, the data in the RMS’ and PWC reports quoted above follow the thorough and rational methodologies that would make any British empiricist proud. This is important not only in the environmental sphere, but in the political, financial and wider scientific too – if you can’t trust the data or “find the truth” you lose pretty much everything. Imagine trying to build a rocket and send it into space if no one believed the mathematics or disputed the evidence that an old car running on leaded fuel produced toxic fumes. Without locking your friend/colleague/family member in the garage with the engine running to prove the point, argument and progress becomes almost impossible.
And so, this report, like many before it, highlights one of the greatest communications challenges of our time – if we can’t accept or share the facts, how can we shape and inform the argument? Will we only be able to emote to win? Have we truly had “enough of experts”? I imagine any of us could entertain this approach until we want to board a plane, receive medical treatment or gain investment for our latest venture.
Facts are at the heart of the climate debate – its time we used them.
Now, where are my shorts?
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