Reflections from the Liberal Democrats conference 2026: The Matrix with more seagulls

Liberal Democrats on their way home from Brighton this week were left scratching their heads, wondering how two different realities can exist at the same time. It was The Matrix, but with more seagulls and discussions about electoral reform.

The party pessimists were convinced the Lib Dems were treading water off the south coast. The two-party system was falling apart and yet the spoils were being shared between the Greens and Reform. And the Lib Dems were becoming a political irrelevance with only 10% in the polls and no clear strategy to capitalise on a once in a generation change in voter attitudes.

The party optimists thumped their chests and declared the Liberal Democrats were in rude health – returning a record-breaking 72 MPs to Westminster on only 12% of the vote share and were now the last liberal bulwark against far-right populism.

But even the most tigerish Lib Dems (of which there are many in Brighton) wouldn’t realistically claim that the King will be inviting Ed Davey to form the next government any time soon. So why engage with Britain’s most famous political bridesmaid at all?

• In the short term, the Liberal Democrats have proved reasonably adept at using their parliamentary caucus to cause political headaches for the Government, confirming it is better to have Britain’s third party on your side.
• In the medium term, local government reorganisation could quickly give key Liberal Democrats outside Parliament clear mandates and relative freedom to enact their own policy platforms.
• And in the longer term, in a new era of multi-party politics, a Liberal Democrat party with 70+ MPs could quickly become kingmakers, either in a formal coalition or, as is more likely, an informal confidence-and-supply agreement, helping to set policy priorities or red lines.

The good news is that the party is rapidly professionalising. With the return of James Holt as Political Director and a beefed-up HQ team, many have commented that there is a hard-nosed tenacity and a wish to engage proactively returning to the party. Additionally, the launch of The Britain Project – an independent, liberal think tank – shows the party is investing seriously in thoughtful policymaking for the first time in a generation.

In this new context of professionalisation, it will not be enough to turn up once a year at conference. To engage effectively with the Lib Dems, organisations will need to cultivate sustainable relationships over the long term, feed in policy ideas through the party machinery, and demonstrate what the political or electoral dividend is for the party.

But the question still remains – where do the Lib Dems go from here?

Ed Davey and his top team announced a new raft of policies, including increasing the tax-free personal allowance threshold, raising the higher-rate income tax threshold, launching a new International AI Safety Agency, and an international treaty pausing the development of superintelligent AI.

And although not a formal new policy, ahead of conference, Ed Davey said the proposed Jackdaw gas field “made sense”, subject to passing the relevant climate test. But the rumblings from MPs, councillors, and party activists were that the ‘record-breaking 72 MPs’ line sounds like a broken record.

At the same time, the policy announcements left delegates confused rather than inspired, particularly the North Sea comments. Off the record, one senior contact even admitted that he had now heard around a third of Lib Dems MPs thought Davey should start making his way towards the exit.

However, the party faces a paradox. With 72 MPs, there is no shortage of ambitious colleagues waiting in the wings — Daisy Cooper and Josh Babarinde are the clearest contenders, with Layla Moran, Calum Miller and Joshua Reynolds also mentioned. But with Davey overseeing the party’s growth, few MPs will want to rock the boat and move against the leader.