Sir Keir Starmer has announced his resignation as the Leader of the Labour Party. He spoke to the King this morning and will continue as Prime Minister until a new Leader is in place.
Shortly after his announcement, Andy Burnham, as expected, announced his intention to run in the Labour leadership contest that will follow. Wes Streeting, the only other serious contender to have openly stated his intention to challenge the Prime Minister*, quickly fell in line by offering Burnham his support.
Downing Street is a strange place on days like this.
On the street, the media pen will be vibrating. The analyses and autopsies will be deafening. Behind the door, the atmosphere will be thick enough to slice.
It will all be new to the political team. They will be feeling a guilty sense of relief, followed by the sudden realisation that they need to find new jobs. The civil servants have seen it all before. But they aren’t immune to the emotions. Because – at the centre of all this – is a man and his family.
Staffers on both sides of the impartiality divide will have got to know The Starmers over the past two years. A collective choke will have lodged in throats when the PM spoke of his wife and children. It certainly caught the former No10 staff here at Blakeney.
The Lobby briefing will likely be cancelled. Hugs will be shared. Friendships rubber stamped. Then, the dust settles. And minds will turn to what happens next…
There is no question that – barring the most unexpected of events – Andy Burnham will become the next Labour Leader and Prime Minister.
While the PM set out a timetable this morning for a process that would see his successor replace him in No10 by the end of the parliamentary Summer Recess (the house returns on 1 September), an uncontested ‘coronation’ could see things move a lot quicker.
However, because Sir Keir has offered his resignation as Party leader, rather than having a contest triggered against him through the parliamentary nominations process, the Labour Party will now seek nominations from constituency parties and affiliates, as well as from MPs. Candidates require the support of 20 per cent of the PLP (81 MPs), five percent of constituency parties, and at least three affiliates (of which two must be trade unions) to go forward. Burnham will have no trouble securing any of these.
The NEC will have met ahead of nominations opening to set out the full timetable for the contest. But, assuming Burnham has no opposition, Labour General Secretary Hollie Ridley will declare him the victor and new party leader following the close of nominations. In those circumstances, expect the handover of power to happen immediately – Starmer will leave Downing Street, Burnham will go to see the King, and then head straight to No10 to start appointing his cabinet. This is likely to all happen before the end of July.
Rachel Reeves is almost certain to leave office along with the Prime Minister, and we can expect many of Burnham’s allies to do well in his new administration – including current cabinet members like Ed Miliband, Lisa Nandy and Heidi Alexander, as well as big promotions for current backbenchers who have formed part of his inner circle during recent weeks such as Louise Haigh and Anneliese Midgley.
When general elections come around, officials pore over the party manifestos for weeks – costing up policy packages and writing the bull and bear case on how those key manifesto commitments will play out well in advance of the minister getting their first ‘box’ of official advice.
Internal leadership contests are different. Much less is known about what the candidates would do once in No10. Perhaps they have done a big Secretary of State job and would bring some of that focus with them (think Theresa May and her ongoing focus on modern slavery and immigration as PM) or perhaps they have a big idea that they’ve used out on the campaign trail, but which has never really been fleshed out (think Boris and ‘levelling up’ – the subject of frantic exchanges of high-minded briefing notes in the corridors of power).
Defining what ‘Manchesterism’ means on a national stage will be, no doubt, the key debate inside No10 for the coming months. Public ownership of utilities, more social housing, and a national social care service could be high on the agenda.
For officials in the Treasury, trying to plan for a busy conference season and Autumn Budget, the view of the next potential chancellor will be just as important. ‘But where will the money come from, Prime Minister?’ Andy Burnham has promised to stick to Rachel Reeves’ core ‘tax lock’ and fiscal rules, but has also signalled tax cuts to businesses on Business Rates and Employer NICs. Wes Streeting has started positioning himself for a big economic role under Burnham, with his recent intervention on ‘progressive capitalism’. A Streeting chancellorship may see some of this being funded by a “wealth tax that works” – such as a huge hike in Capital Gains Tax. We may also see the balance between low corporate tax rates and stronger incentives for patient capital and investment back in the spotlight.
Whoever ends up next door to Burnham, the Treasury will want to keep a lid on any big tax and spending commitments until an Autumn Budget when decisions can be ‘taken in the round’, but any new leader is going to want plenty of red meat for their first party conference as leader. Cue an internal tug of war between Nos 10 and 11 once again, and a headache for the staffers trying to weigh up and prioritise all the issues on the PM’s desk for their first week behind the black door.
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