Labour has won every election in Wales for 103 years.
To say that a poll that puts a party with such consistency, self-renewal, and political dominance in third place is a real moment in Welsh politics.
The Barn Cymru/ITV Wales poll a year out from next year’s Senedd election was a real marmalade dropper – not only does it have the current party of government losing badly, it has Plaid Cymru leading everyone by 5 points and Reform (who currently have no leader or candidates) in second place on 25%. The Welsh Tories seem even further behind than the national polling in fourth place – meaning that they’d go from being the official opposition to a small, rump party left with potentially propping up Reform.
Welsh elections (even in Wales) can often pass by without much comment or interest. But something is happening. Wales is suffering economically, public services (especially health and education) consistently trail any comparative measures elsewhere in the UK, and post-pandemic, there has been a sharper critique and awareness of what devolved governance and legislative operation actually means in practice and in policy terms.
Politically, there’s no some interesting strategy at play…
Welsh Labour are seeing a huge turnover in personnel – over half their MSs are standing down, and a new First Minister is desperately attempting to place distance with UK Labour.
Plaid under the leadership of the charismatic former journalist has started to present their policy in a more optimistic and engaging way – even celebrating St. George’s Day ie, ‘We want to be friendly neighbours, not aggressive separatists.”
The Welsh Tories seem lost. Not sure how to set themselves apart from the woes of the national party – going through an internal crisis over the very acceptance of devolution itself – and fighting wedge issue tactics, over fresh new thinking.
Reform are comfortable playing the UK message in Wales – they have purposefully avoided the risk of appointing figureheads and leaving the airwaves to be run from their Millbank HQ, but this will start to shift as candidates begin to be selected.
Wales has always been the historic heartland of liberalism, and yet any sense of a revival is limited to a couple of constituencies.
…and to add to the shifting sands of political attitudes in Wales, a new electoral system, and an enlarging legislature all make hashtag#Senedd26 uncharted territory – and a real UK political story for possibly the first time.
Insight