Blog There are Prime Ministers who ‘make’ the political weather. Leaders like Blair, Thatcher or Attlee possessed such a clarity of vision – and an innate ability to communicate it – that they were able to bend events to their will and fundamentally shift the parameters of the politically possible. And then there are the Starmers, Mays and Callaghans: those buffeted uncontrollably by political storms and forced to react tactically to every news cycle.
Burnham’s Party Conference as Labour leader and Prime Minister was his attempt to make the political weather after a post-Brexit decade of political storms. Whether or not he succeeded, the Conference ended today in Liverpool with the party of government in buoyant mood. A well-received speech by the PM certainly filled out the arguments underpinning Burnham’s vision with substantial context and policy content, wrapped in a coherent and highly personal narrative.
Nevertheless, there was a sense of fragility too, especially at the front end of Conference. John Healey’s people were telling media there would be ‘fireworks’ from the Chancellor’s speech the day before. The distinct lack of pyrotechnics that followed – in an address which hit the right rhetorical notes but offered less policy detail than the build-up suggested – evoked a rain-soaked community bonfire night.
Some special advisors reportedly expressed concerns (mainly after one too many in the Pullman Hotel bar) that the PM had nicked their bosses’ best conference announcements for himself. He would hardly be the first party leader to do so – and the fact that some disgruntled aides were briefing this points more to the inexperience of a new administration than any rot at its heart. But it underlined that this is a very new leadership which still has much to do in defining itself and turning its political instincts into a programme for government.
Furthermore, the elephant in the Liverpool Exhibition Centre was the stark reality, understood most keenly by those present from the worlds of business and economics, that beneath the retail politics and promises of boldness on Europe, social care and electoral reform lurks a fiscal menace which Healey will have to grapple with publicly in less than a month, when he presents his first Budget.
Healey and Burnham repeatedly insisted that the Government will meet its fiscal rules, while simultaneously promising a new age of industrialisation and further public investment. Few in Liverpool appeared clear how, within those constraints, the PM and Chancellor can deliver meaningful improvements to living standards and in this Parliament – or whether the eventual answer will involve further tax rises.
The PM had headed off what was always going to be a hot gossip topic by ruling out an early election in his pre-Conference media round, insisting that he intends to follow the traditional timetable through to 2029. Nevertheless, few around Conference took that to mean an election before then was inconceivable should an attractive opportunity arise. MPs and advisers lubricated by free cocktails at some of Conference’s more exclusive receptions were happy to speculate: May 2028 featured regularly in conversations as a plausible window if the Government is in a strong position by then. Few saw any advantage in going quickly, with the risk of losing seats – and potentially Labour’s majority – front of mind.
Number 10 staffers and Burnham allies were briefing on Tuesday morning that we should expect the most ‘consequential’ Party Conference speech by a Labour Prime Minister in the modern era. Such promises were wisely taken with a pinch of salt by seasoned Conference veterans – most were merely hoping for a competent and compelling speech which would put some meat on the bones of Burnham’s agenda.
What followed was an unusually personal and emotionally charged speech – and one of the most compelling conference performances by a Labour Prime Minister since Tony Blair’s final address to his party 20 years ago. Blair was the last Labour leader who succeeded in shaping the political weather, rather than being shaped by it – and while Burnham’s style is very different from that of the man who appointed him to his first ministerial role in 2005, he took to the stage with the same air of self-assured belief in everything he was about to say.
Burnham drafted much of the speech himself. It wasn’t a perfectly crafted lesson in oratory, nor was it intended to be. One joke about David Moyes and Alex Ferguson left all but the Evertonians and Manchester United fans looking a bit confused. But it was authentically Andy. At one point, the PM took a long pause, moved to tears ahead of a mention of the day, recently, when his father passed away. The fact that it was delivered without a lectern or notes (though with autocue) heightened both the informality and the personal nature of the address.
In terms of policy, there were two broad buckets: things Burnham has committed to do, and processes he has committed to begin.
Among the former, the biggest announcement was the most heavily trailed: a National Care Service, providing free personal care for older people in the next Parliament. Burnham said that he would “go through the pain barrier and rip the plaster off” to deliver and fund it (without borrowing) – by taking the bold step of reforming the state pension triple lock from April 2030, with annual increases of at least inflation or 2.5% and a longer-term link to earnings replacing the annual link.
There was a clear philosophical thread running through Burnham’s domestic programme – one that went down predictably well with the Labour faithful in the conference hall. Energy, water and housing were grouped together in his speech as essentials which should come under “stronger public control”. In Burnham’s project, this does not necessarily mean nationalisation in the traditional sense. Rather, it sets the scene for a more interventionist model in which central government, mayors and publicly owned institutions take a more active role in markets. He presented it – much to the approval of those in the room – as a response to the Thatcherite reforms of the 80s and early 90s which, in a neat rhetorical device, he presented as the true ‘loss of control’ that had dogged Britain’s progress since.
He announced Great British Grid, a new publicly owned company under the Great British Energy umbrella which will invest in electricity network infrastructure and compete with existing private-sector operators, intended to speed up grid connections and reduce costs. On water, the Government will remove the legislative prohibition on state ownership of water companies. Housing measures included restrictions on Right to Buy for newly built social homes and further intervention in the leasehold and rental markets.
Potentially just as consequential were the questions Burnham chose to reopen as key topics for Labour’s next manifesto (though we’ll have to wait until then for the answers). He put electoral reform firmly on the table, promising to establish a national commission which will report before the next general election, which Labour will enter with a manifesto commitment to change the electoral system (while retaining a constituency link).
And he promised to go substantially further in rebuilding the UK’s relationship with the EU, arguing that Brexit has reduced rather than increased Britain’s economic control – indicating in subsequent media interviews that his proposals could ‘go all the way’ to seeking full membership – though other options explicitly under consideration include joining the customs union or single market.
He promised to put AI at the centre of Britain’s G20 presidency next year, and to pursue a new global code intended to capture AI’s benefits while managing its risks. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband developed the argument elsewhere at Conference, presenting international AI governance – alongside climate and security – as an area in which Britain should seek to lead globally.
It was notable that relatively little time given to two of the largest challenges facing the government – defence and climate change. These were major topics elsewhere at Conference – both on the platform and the fringe – but did not warrant extended sections of the PM’s address. Burnham reiterated his support for Ukraine, referred to Britain’s NATO obligations and threats from Russia and Iran, while climate featured briefly in his discussion of the North Sea and the transition to clean energy. But neither formed a substantial part of his political argument. Defence Secretary Wes Streeting had used his own speech to describe a “new age of insecurity”, reaffirm the commitment to spend 3.5% of GDP on core defence by 2035 and place defence investment at the heart of Labour’s industrial strategy.
Finally, there is the money. Following Healey’s speech the previous day, Burnham again insisted that the Government will stick to its fiscal rules. That leaves a rather large question hanging over everything announced this week. We now have to wait another month, until the Budget, to discover how the Government intends to reconcile its ambitions with the fiscal straitjacket it has imposed upon itself – and whether, as many of the business attendees in Liverpool appeared to expect, the answer will be tax rises.
While the PM – as ever – made the headline announcements, there was a raft of less eye-catching but still significant policy announcements elsewhere at Conference:
Across these announcements, it is clear that one of the core themes in the Burnham project is being taken forward across multiple policy areas: devolution is becoming a tool of economic policy delivery rather than just a constitutional project. Mayors and strategic authorities are being given a growing role in skills, infrastructure and investment, while procurement, the National Wealth Fund and defence spending are increasingly being presented as tools for reindustrialisation and geographically dispersed growth. For businesses and other organisations looking to influence policy, this highlights the importance of a more expansive and strategic approach to political engagement.
