Local elections: Blakeney’s breakdown of all the Parties

First up, Labour – “Vote for change in your community” 

Local elections are generally used to punish the national government, and so Labour will not be expecting to replicate their general election success at local level. Some polls suggest that Labour is likely to finish 4th behind Reform, the Conservatives and Lib Dems.  

Traditional local election issues like potholes and crumbling council services are likely to come to the fore. The ongoing bin strike in Birmingham has become a significant issue for the Labour Party with local elections approaching. The Labour-led council’s handling of the strike has drawn criticism from various quarters. A long-serving Labour councillor resigned, citing dissatisfaction with the council’s approach to the dispute. Opposition parties have jumped on the issue, highlighting it as an example of Labour mismanagement. 

What they’re focusing on: 

• Defending traditional strongholds in the North and Midlands. 
• Countering the growing threat from Reform UK. 
• Emphasising local issues like crumbling services over national popularity. 

Key target areas: 

• Doncaster Council – Battling significant Reform UK gains. 
• Derbyshire & Lancashire – Seeking growth in historically second-place regions.
• County Durham – Attempting to reclaim control from a six-party coalition. 

In the blue corner, Conservatives – “Lower Taxes. Better Services”

The elections will be seen as a first electoral test of Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, but CCHQ will look to play this down and manage expectations. Badenoch has said that these elections will be tough and has indicated in recent days that local Conservatives could go into coalition with Reform in certain areas to maintain control.   

What they’re focusing on: 

• Defending record on low council tax and service delivery. 
• Minimising losses and managing expectations under new leadership 
• Exploring potential coalitions with Reform UK. 

Key target areas: 

• Kent & Staffordshire – Facing strong challenges from Reform and Lib Dems.
• West Northamptonshire – Battling boundary issues and local controversies. 

In the other blue corner, Reform UK – “Britain is broken. Britain needs reform”

Since securing four Parliamentary seats last year, Reform has surged in the polls and claims to have signed up over 220,000 members. This set of local elections is seen as a critical test of its electoral strength. The Party’s candidate pool has also shifted the political landscape, with more than 60 local candidates being Conservative Party defectors.  

Forecasts suggest Reform UK will be the big winners with Electoral Calculus projecting the Party to gain up to 697 councillors, capturing around 25% of the vote. However, the rift between Rupert Lowe and Nigel Farage in recent months has exposed internal divisions and it will be worth watching to see if that has any impact on the Party’s electoral performance. 

What they’re focusing on: 

• Aggressively expanding presence with a broad, populist message. 
• Showcasing momentum from recent Parliamentary wins. 
• Targeting disillusioned Conservative and Labour voters. 

Key target areas: 

• Lincolnshire – Full candidate list to contest Conservative dominance. 
• Doncaster – Aiming to undermine Labour’s control.
• County Durham – Seeking seats amid Labour vulnerability. 

And it was all yellow, the Liberal Democrats – “Party of Middle England”

The Liberal Democrats have launched their local election campaign with a bold ambition: to overtake the Conservatives and become the second-largest party in local government. Leader Ed Davey has framed the Lib Dems as the natural home for “Middle England,” appealing to voters disillusioned with both the Conservatives and Labour.  

Positioning themselves on a strong internationalist platform, the Lib Dems have adopted a clear anti-Trump stance, which may help them appeal to voters who find Keir Starmer’s willingness to do business with Trump unpalatable. Polling by Electoral Calculus indicates the Liberal Democrats are likely to pick up council seats.  

What they’re focusing on: 

• Capitalising on momentum from their strong general election performance.   
• Positioning themselves as a credible alternative to Labour and Conservatives. 
• Targeting “Middle England” voters with strong internationalist and anti-Trump messaging. 

Key target areas: 

• Oxfordshire & Cambridgeshire – In a position for growth with Conservative’s poor electoral performance.
• Gloucestershire, Devon & Cornwall – Expanding on previous regional gains. 

Last but not least, the Green Party – “Taking votes from the old tired parties to offer something different”

Co-leaders Adrian Ramsay and Carla Denyer did little to play down expectations as they launched the Greens’ local election campaign this week, vowing to achieve a “record-breaking” year, having passed 800 councillors for the first time in 2024. 

Denyer, who defeated Thangam Debbonaire to became the MP for Bristol Central last year, says her party offers a “positive change” that can win over “disillusioned” voters. While many expect Reform UK’s performance to be the story of these elections, the Green Party could well be the surprise package of the night, if they can pick up left-wing voters disillusioned by the reality of Labour in government. 

What they’re focusing on: 

• Breaking records for local representation. 
• Presenting a positive, progressive alternative for disillusioned voters. 
• Benefiting from left-wing dissatisfaction with Labour and anti-Trump sentiment. 

Key target areas: 

• Stroud & Forest of Dean – Building on past success in these strongholds.