Defence spending decision shows that more than ever, politics is a continuous exercise in making choices

Undoubtedly, the current economic landscape is far from where Labour feels comfortable, forcing Ministers away from what they want to be talking about. Following the ‘tough choices’ announced at the autumn budget, this week the PM announced a ‘generational’ rise in the amount that the UK would spend on defence, putting a hard target of 2027 to increase spending to 2.5% of GDP.

Is this announcement a signal the government feels the need to be perceived as taking action? Or is it simply a pragmatic response to the shifting geopolitical landscape? There is more to this than at first glance.

Likely, Keir Starmer believes that the rise in defence spending is necessary given the rapid shift in the US’ stance on Ukraine/Russia and signalling its expectations of its future role in European defence. The PM has said that this decision was taken over weeks, not days – but it is doubtless that the announcement was accelerated given Trump’s positioning and Starmer’s visit to Washington this week. An example of how political events necessitate tough – and immediate – decisions.

That said, there’s also the wider UK landscape for Labour to contend with. There is the very likely possibility of the first by-election (following the suspended sentencing of Mike Amesbury, MP for Runcorn and Helsby) since the general election, and local elections in May. Both will be a real test, for both the government and Reform UK, which will face its first proper interrogation as it climbs the polls.

Either way, the defence spending announcement is a window into the Prime Minister’s willingness to be flexible, to shift his priorities, and to make unforeseen choices to confront new realities. The cutting of aid spending was, at the end of the day, a reversal on a manifesto commitment. So, it begs the question about what other agendas will be thrown off.

It also highlights the inflexibility of the UK’s fiscal rules. In the current context, these make spending decisions like this a zero-sum game. This inflexibility boxes in the government and leaves little wiggle room ahead of the Spending Review in June.  

So, is this a sign of things to come? With the Spring statement fast approaching, and the Spending Review following soon after, will there be more tax rise-shaped stings in the tail? Starmer has demonstrated he has the steeliness to flex on his manifesto pledges, but with healthcare, education, infrastructure, and clean energy, all demanding attention (and money), there will be more difficult decisions down the track.